A Framework That Provides Clarity
During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.
ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) ticks up to 144.4 from 144.1, and the growth rate was virtually unchanged at 2.8%. 
To put the economy in perspective please see links below:
- read ECRI's "Phillips Curveball".
- read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's op-ed on Bloomberg.
- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Reuters.
For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:
The long-term shift to non-regular work arrangements may actually exacerbate Japan's demographic challenges. More
Central banks like the Fed are misled by their belief that a lower jobless rate equals higher inflation. More
It is the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, "not the Phillips curve", that provides early warning of an inflation upturn. More
The USFIG dips in July, further distancing itself from last fall's cyclical peak. More
August 2, 2017
Full Report: U.S. Focus
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