A Framework That Provides Clarity
During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.
Body: ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index fell to 144.1 from 144.5. The WLI growth rate decreases to a 72-week low of 2.3%, from 2.5% the previous week. 
To put the economy in perspective please see links below:
- read ECRI's "Flashback: Declining Productivity in Construction".
- watch Anirvan Banerji's interview on Reuters.
- read ECRI's "Phillips Curveball".
For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:
Economic growth, which has been ramping up since mid-2016, is now about as good as it gets. More
Two things bear most of the blame: external shocks and economic volatility. More
ECRI readers have long known that manufacturing and construction productivity has been falling for six years, dragging down overall productivity growth. More
Central banks like the Fed are misled by their belief that a lower jobless rate equals higher inflation. More
It is the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, "not the Phillips curve", that provides early warning of an inflation upturn. More
Even as central bankers get more hawkish, the data show there's a change underway that the Fed is likely to miss. More
August 2, 2017
Full Report: U.S. Focus
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