A Framework That Provides Clarity
During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.
The level of the monthly U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 142.5, as its growth rate ticked down to 2.9% from 3.0%.
To put the economic cycle in perspective please see links below:
- watch Anirvan Banerji's recent interview on Reuters.
- read ECRI's "Phillips Curveball".
- read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's op-ed on Bloomberg.
Two things bear most of the blame: external shocks and economic volatility. More
The long-term shift to non-regular work arrangements may actually exacerbate Japan's demographic challenges. More
Central banks like the Fed are misled by their belief that a lower jobless rate equals higher inflation. More
It is the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, "not the Phillips curve", that provides early warning of an inflation upturn. More
August 2, 2017
Full Report: U.S. Focus
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