A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



New Business Cycle Peaks for Italy and Japan

Today ECRI is announcing new business cycle peak dates for Italy (Apr. 2011) and Japan (May 2012).

Click here for the complete international business cycle chronology.

Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates on the NBER’s behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee’s senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 20 other countries.

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New Growth Rate Cycle Peaks for Mexico and Japan

ECRI May 1, 2013

Today ECRI is announcing new growth rate cycle peak dates for Mexico and Japan. More