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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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2016 Shapes 2017 Cyclical Outlook


ECRI’s 2016 track record has been posted (highlights below), and many of the cyclical forecasts continue in to 2017, including reflation calls for both the U.S. and global economy, a global industrial upturn call, and a U.S. growth rate cycle upturn call:

September 2016: Global industrial growth boosting commodity prices, affirming ECRI's call for global industrial growth upturn.

September 2016: While global growth decelerates and world export volumes decline, India bucks the trend.

August 2016: ECRI’s “global reflation” call, based on its international future inflation gauges exhibiting widespread buildup of cyclical reflationary pressures, despite sustained structural lowflation.

June 2016: Both before and right after Brexit vote, ECRI stood firm that Brexit would not trigger immediate U.K. recession.

March 2016: Slowing economic growth and simmering inflation pressures add up to ECRI’s "stagflation lite" forecast.

January 2016:  No full-blown Fed rate hike cycle, with U.S. growth rate cycle downturn set to continue.  But no recession at hand.

For more information, including excerpts from ECRI research reports, please follow this link to Track Record page.

 

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Fed Rate Hike

Reuters December 14, 2016

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