A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.
To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

News & Events

Dec 31 2018

2018 Cycle Calls

ECRI’s 2018 real-time track record and a look at what comes next. More
Oct 27 2018

Why Trump May Be Right About the Fed

“The biggest risk is the Fed,” President Trump charged again last week. Meanwhile, ECRI analysis points “It’s a full-blown downturn, pointing to a further decline in inflation pressures.” More
Oct 26 2018

Debt Alarm Ringing

The combined debt of the US, Eurozone, Japan, and China has increased more than ten times as much as their combined GDP growth over the past year. More
Oct 26 2018

Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate decreases to -0.4%. More
Oct 25 2018

Is The U.S. Economy Slowing?

If the U.S. economy is slowing, who is going to be blamed? More
Oct 24 2018

Economic Cycles & Stock Price Corrections

With at least one equity price correction during every economic slowdown, knowing where you are in the economic cycle is critical to managing portfolio risk. More
Oct 23 2018

Damned Lies and Statistics

With GDP growth over 4% and the jobless rate under 4% people feel pretty good, but the last two times we saw this combination, in 2000 and way back in 1969, a recession was less than a year away. More
Oct 23 2018

U.S. Not Immune to Global Slowdown

The U.S. economy is not as resilient as the headlines suggest, as a number of cycle downturns become clear, including home price growth and broad inflation. More
Oct 22 2018

Radio Interview: ECRI’s Home Price Downturn Call

ECRI's Achuthan joins Bloomberg Opinion Radio to discuss "Housing Market Is Raising Serious Red Flags." More
Oct 19 2018

Weekly Leading Index Falls

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate slips to 0.1%. More
Oct 16 2018

ECRI’s Inflation Downturn Call

Achuthan joined Grant’s podcast to discuss ECRI’s cyclical worldview on inflation, home prices, EM and more. More
Oct 15 2018

Worst Home Price Outlook Since 2009

A home price downturn is much more than a possible risk. More
Oct 15 2018

Housing Market Is Raising Serious Red Flags

Real home price growth looks to have already entered a cyclical downturn that is likely to intensify as affordability worsens. More
Oct 12 2018

Weekly Leading Index Decreases

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks up to 0.6%. More
Oct 03 2018

Home Price Growth Downturn

Achuthan joined CNBC to discuss ECRI’s home price downturn call, the wealth effect, and borrowing vs. growth. More
Sep 07 2018

Interview on Jobs Report, Wage Growth & Trade Sanctions

Achuthan discussed jobs report and how wage growth rising is consistent with a stealth slowdown in economic growth. Trade sanctions are also discussed. More
Sep 04 2018

ECRI on EM vs. U.S. Growth

Bloomberg TV discussion about how emerging market weakness fits into ECRI’s public global cyclical outlook, including the U.S., and monetary policy. More
Aug 31 2018

Will the Flattening Yield Curve Lead to Recession?

In contrast to the latest robust GDP readings, ECRI’s broader U.S. Coincident Index is below last October’s peak. More
Aug 31 2018

Managing the Risk of Equity Corrections

ECRI's Achuthan on CNBC to discuss how equity correction risk rises during cyclical slowdowns in economic growth. More
Aug 03 2018

Outsized Gains for Least Educated Limits Wage Growth

The Employment/Population ratio for those without a high school diploma has never been higher. More

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News
Events

Testimonial

I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction â€“ even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that â€“ lead where things were headed.

- Randall Forsyth, Barron's

I find that ECRI's historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.

- ECRI Professional Member

Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.

- ECRI Professional Member

ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.

- ECRI Professional Member

ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.

- Sydney Morning Herald

(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.

- Fortune 100 Company

Our Track Record

Highlights of ECRI's calls.

View the Timeline