A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.


What is the best way for a new professional member to get started?

We encourage new members to contact ECRI and schedule an introduction to the information provided via the professional member website. We provide a walk-through of the report library, index downloading, and charting features to help new members gain familiarity with our framework and services.

Our member report archive includes an evergreen section highlighting past reports sections on perennial concerns. For example, this includes the relationship between economic and stock price cycles, corrections, equity risk premia, interest rates commodities, currencies, real estate, and debt cycles.

How are your growth rates calculated?

Professional members please call us at +1 212 557 7788 or +44 207 060 1223 for this information.

Do ECRI principals travel to my area?

Our principals regularly travel throughout the world to visit professional A level members. It is likely that we will visit a location near you. ECRI's headquarters are located in midtown Manhattan, so we also regularly host member meetings.

For a sample listing of where we travel, please see our News & Events.

In what format can I download data?

Members can download index data into an Excel file with one sheet or an Excel file with multiple sheets. These downloads can be done manually or they can be automated.

How do I save a set of indexes I want to download regularly?

Once you log in, look for Download Index Sets on the home page and click Create a new set. You can specify the region, index type, and update timeframe for your index set. After you create an index set, you will be able to quickly access it for download from the home page and Reports & Indexes pages.

What do the different colors of lines represent in ECRI charts?

There is a standard color code used for the line colors in our charts:

Green denotes a leading series.
Blue denotes a coincident series.
Pink denotes a lagging series.
Red denotes a leading price (level or growth) series.
Black denotes a coincident price (level or growth) series.

Grey-shaded areas represent business cycle recessions, or cyclical downswings in the level of a series.
Orange-shaded areas represent growth rate cycle downturns, or cyclical downswings in the growth rate of a series.
Green-shaded areas represent cyclical downswings in a price level series.
Blue-shaded areas represent cyclical downswings in a price growth rate series.

Other colors and shaded areas may be used very occasionally for data that do not fit any of the above descriptions.

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ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
- Harvard Business Review
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
- ECRI Professional Member
Congrats on having the only coherent analysis available.
- ECRI Professional Member
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
- Grant's Interest Rate Observer
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
- Fortune Magazine
(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
- Fortune 100 Company