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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • October 24, 2018
  • ECRI

Economic Cycles & Stock Price Corrections

With at least one equity price correction during every economic slowdown, knowing where you are in the economic cycle is critical to managing portfolio risk.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Why Trump May Be Right About the Fed

Barron's October 27, 2018

“The biggest risk is the Fed,” President Trump charged again last week. Meanwhile, ECRI analysis points “It’s a full-blown downturn, pointing to a further decline in inflation pressures.”   More

Debt Alarm Ringing

Mauldin Economics October 26, 2018

The combined debt of the US, Eurozone, Japan, and China has increased more than ten times as much as their combined GDP growth over the past year.   More

Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down

ECRI October 26, 2018

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate decreases to -0.4%.   More

Is The U.S. Economy Slowing?

New York Post October 25, 2018

If the U.S. economy is slowing, who is going to be blamed?   More

More News

Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.3
Public update:

Oct 26
10:30am

Member update:

Oct 26
9:00am

XLS

USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.4
Public update:

Oct 05
9:40am

Member update:

Oct 05
9:00am

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.3
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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