A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • December 31, 2018
  • ECRI

2018 Cycle Calls

ECRI’s 2018 real-time track record and a look at what comes next.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted January 31, 2018

The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading Index (WLI)

The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth.   More

Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018

2018 Cycle Calls

ECRI December 31, 2018

ECRI’s 2018 real-time track record and a look at what comes next.   More

Why Trump May Be Right About the Fed

Barron's October 27, 2018

“The biggest risk is the Fed,” President Trump charged again last week. Meanwhile, ECRI analysis points “It’s a full-blown downturn, pointing to a further decline in inflation pressures.”   More

Debt Alarm Ringing

Mauldin Economics October 26, 2018

The combined debt of the US, Eurozone, Japan, and China has increased more than ten times as much as their combined GDP growth over the past year.   More

Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down

ECRI October 26, 2018

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate decreases to -0.4%.   More

More News

Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) -0.3
Public update:

Oct 26

Member update:

Oct 26


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) -0.4
Public update:

Oct 05

Member update:

Oct 05

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.3
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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