A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

  • October 23, 2017
  • ECRI


Testing the large chart.

ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles.

Independent research: contrary to the consensus when it counts.

Featured Past Report Summary:
Posted January 28, 2016

Grand Experiments That Are Too Big to Fail

The fate of the global economy depends on the success of these unconventional efforts to boost economic growth.   More

Full Report: International Essentials: Oct 28, 2015


ECRI October 23, 2017

Testing the large chart.    More

2016 Shapes 2017 Cyclical Outlook

ECRI January 12, 2017

Key 2016 Cycle Calls for Inflation and Growth Extend Into New Year    More

Fed Rate Hike

Reuters December 14, 2016

Cyclical context of Fed's statement   More

No, A Global Recession Isn't Imminent

Forbes November 10, 2016

Pundits who claim Trump's victory will augur in instant economic disaster are wrong.   More

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Featured ECRI Composite Indexes

WLIW U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly) 0.2
Public update:

Apr 08

Member update:

Apr 08


USFIGM U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly) 0.7
Public update:

Apr 01

Member update:

Apr 01

USLHPI U.S. Leading Home Price Index -0.7
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data begins in 1953.

Reports & Indexes

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